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Annecy vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Caen
Caen
1/31/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy44%
×Draw27%
Caen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.39
Caen
1.08

Annecy creates 29% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 107 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Caen
1.53

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
71%
Annecy or Caen
73%
Draw or Caen
56%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
21%
Caen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
75%
Annecy 2+ goals
40%
Annecy 3+ goals
16%
Caen 1+ goals
66%
Caen 2+ goals
29%
Caen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
60%
Caen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Caen attack 1.10 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annecy scores more
44%
level
27%
Caen scores more
29%

Annecy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Annecy 2–0 Caen

Annecy beat Caen 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.