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Annecy vs Bastia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Annecy
Annecy
FT
2 – 3
Bastia
Bastia
7/8/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Municipal Jacques Forestier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Annecy40%
×Draw19%
Bastia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
2.33
Bastia
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Annecy
2.67
Bastia
2.00

allows per match

Annecy
2.67
Bastia
2.00

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
60%
Annecy or Bastia
81%
Draw or Bastia
60%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
23%
Bastia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
90%
Annecy 2+ goals
67%
Annecy 3+ goals
41%
Bastia 1+ goals
90%
Bastia 2+ goals
67%
Bastia 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
50%
Bastia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 2.67 + Bastia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bastia attack 2.00 + Annecy defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Annecy scores more
40%
level
19%
Bastia scores more
40%

Annecy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annecy vs Bastia

Bastia beat Annecy 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Jacques Forestier in Aix-les-Bains.