Annecy-le-Vieux 1–3 Andrézieux: Result & Stats

Annecy-le-Vieux

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Andrézieux

12/9/2018

Coupe de France · 8th RoundComplexe sportif d'Albigny (Annecy-le-Vieux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Annecy-le-Vieux20%

×Draw21%

Andrézieux59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annecy-le-VieuxExpected goals in this matchAndrézieux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.08

Annecy-le-Vieux

1.13

Andrézieux

2.08

Andrézieux creates 84% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

2.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Annecy-le-Vieux

1.00

Andrézieux

1.50

allows per match

Annecy-le-Vieux

2.67

Andrézieux

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annecy-le-Vieux+0.00on par

Andrézieux+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy-le-Vieux ↓

Andrézieux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Annecy-le-Vieux or draw

41%

Annecy-le-Vieux or Andrézieux

79%

Draw or Andrézieux

80%

Winning margin

Annecy-le-Vieux wins by 2+

8%

Andrézieux wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Annecy-le-Vieux 1+ goals

68%

Annecy-le-Vieux 2+ goals

31%

Annecy-le-Vieux 3+ goals

11%

Andrézieux 1+ goals

87%

Andrézieux 2+ goals

61%

Andrézieux 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Annecy-le-Vieux (draw refunded)

25%

Andrézieux (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy-le-Vieux at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Andrézieux away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy-le-Vieux attack 1.00 + Andrézieux defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Andrézieux attack 1.50 + Annecy-le-Vieux defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Annecy-le-Vieux scores more

20%

level

21%

Andrézieux scores more

59%

Andrézieux at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Andrézieux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annecy-le-Vieux vs Andrézieux

Andrézieux beat Annecy-le-Vieux 3-1 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Complexe sportif d'Albigny (Annecy-le-Vieux).

Annecy-le-Vieux vs Andrézieux — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Annecy-le-Vieux vs Andrézieux