Annan Athletic 2–3 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Raith Rovers

B. Luissint 37'

J. Galloway 27'

L. Vaughan 79' (pen)

C. Smith 51'

K. Watson 11'

7/29/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Annan Athletic35%

×Draw22%

Raith Rovers43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.90

Annan Athletic

1.70

Raith Rovers

1.90

Raith Rovers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.27

2.53

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.40

Raith Rovers

1.27

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.53

Raith Rovers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Raith Rovers →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

57%

Annan Athletic or Raith Rovers

78%

Draw or Raith Rovers

65%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

17%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

82%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

51%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

24%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

45%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.40 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Annan Athletic defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

35%

level

22%

Raith Rovers scores more

43%

Raith Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

R. Muir← A. Smith

11'

K. Watson↳ L. Vaughan

27'

J. Galloway↳ B. Luissint

37'

B. Luissint↳ J. Dixon

51'

70'

78'

79'

79'

79'

L. VaughanPenalty

83'

K. Cranston← C. Maxwell

90'

A. Arnott← J. Hamilton

90+3'

K. Mitchell← L. Vaughan

Annan

Raith

⚽

⚽A

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽A

▼

11'▲R. Muir←▼A. Smith

83'▲K. Cranston←▼C. Maxwell

Annan Athletic substitutes

14Muir17Cranston16Jamieson12Mitchell

Manager: I. Murray

90'▲A. Arnott←▼J. Hamilton

90+3'▲K. Mitchell←▼L. Vaughan

Raith Rovers substitutes

25Arnott26Mitchell30Masson6Murray17Thomson