Annan Athletic 3–0 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterhead

T. Muir 69', 60'

D. Wilson 53'

1/26/2019

League Two · Round 22Galabank (Annan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Annan Athletic39%

×Draw24%

Peterhead37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.48

Annan Athletic

1.54

Peterhead

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 53 away

1.86

creates per match

1.49

1.46

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.86

Peterhead

1.49

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.46

Peterhead

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

63%

Annan Athletic or Peterhead

76%

Draw or Peterhead

61%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

19%

Peterhead wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

79%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

45%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Peterhead 1+ goals

77%

Peterhead 2+ goals

43%

Peterhead 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

52%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.46 · 93 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.86 + Peterhead defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Peterhead attack 1.49 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

39%

level

24%

Peterhead scores more

37%

Annan Athletic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

D. Wilson

60'

T. Muir

63'

R. McAllister← J. Stevenson

69'

T. Muir

76'

R. McLean← S. Brown

76'

R. Willox← C. Eadie

88'

R. Fergusson← T. Muir

Annan

Peterhead

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Muir

88'▲R. Fergusson←▼T. Muir

Annan Athletic substitutes

FergussonMcadamsStrappMurphy

Manager: J. McInally

63'▲R. McAllister←▼J. Stevenson

76'▲R. McLean←▼S. Brown

76'▲R. Willox←▼C. Eadie

Peterhead substitutes

McAllisterMcLeanWilloxHomeHenderson