Annan Athletic 3–1 Jeanfield Swifts: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeanfield Swifts

O. Moxon 85'

T. Wallace 60', 50' (pen)

C. McLeish 89'

10/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundGalabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Annan Athletic35%

×Draw21%

Jeanfield Swifts44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchJeanfield Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

2.10

Annan Athletic

1.84

Jeanfield Swifts

2.10

Jeanfield Swifts creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

2.71

1.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Annan Athletic

2.25

Jeanfield Swifts

2.71

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.50

Jeanfield Swifts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

56%

Annan Athletic or Jeanfield Swifts

79%

Draw or Jeanfield Swifts

65%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

18%

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

84%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

55%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

28%

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

88%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

62%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

44%

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 2.25 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.84

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Annan Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

35%

level

21%

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

44%

Jeanfield Swifts at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

T. WallacePenalty

60'

T. Wallace

63'

S. Struthers← C. Dodd

63'

P. Simpson← G. Fergus

72'

R. McCartney← J. Purdue

75'

F. Smith← J. Reid

85'

O. Moxon↳ R. McCartney

87'

D. Docherty← O. Moxon

89'

C. McLeish↳ F. Smith

Annan

Jeanfield

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Murphy

72'▲R. McCartney←▼J. Purdue

87'▲D. Docherty←▼O. Moxon

Annan Athletic substitutes

15McCartney14Docherty16Steele12Connolly17Murphy

Manager: R. Gunnion

63'▲S. Struthers←▼C. Dodd

63'▲P. Simpson←▼G. Fergus

75'▲F. Smith←▼J. Reid

Jeanfield Swifts substitutes

15Struthers10Simpson8Smith14Smith3Donald19Sweeney20Dalton16Ramsay

Match Recap: Annan Athletic vs Jeanfield Swifts

Annan Athletic beat Jeanfield Swifts 3-1 in FA Cup on October 23, 2021.

Goals: T. Wallace (50' pen, 60'), O. Moxon (85'), C. McLeish (89').

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.

Annan Athletic vs Jeanfield Swifts — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Annan Athletic vs Jeanfield Swifts