Annan Athletic 3–1 Hamilton Academical

Annan Athletic

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Hamilton Academical

10/6/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Annan Athletic21%

×Draw20%

Hamilton Academical59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.20

Annan Athletic

1.23

Hamilton Academical

2.20

Hamilton Academical creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.87

2.53

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.40

Hamilton Academical

1.87

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.53

Hamilton Academical

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

41%

Annan Athletic or Hamilton Academical

80%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

79%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

8%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

35%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

89%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

64%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

26%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.40 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hamilton Academical attack 1.87 + Annan Athletic defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

21%

level

20%

Hamilton Academical scores more

59%

Hamilton Academical at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff