Annan Athletic 6–1 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Cove Rangers

T. Muir 88', 56' (pen), 33' (pen)

N. Joseph 78'

B. Watson 29'

N. Flanagan 27'

J. Masson 8'

11/30/2019

League Two · Round 14Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Annan Athletic35%

×Draw21%

Cove Rangers44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.13

Annan Athletic

1.90

Cove Rangers

2.13

Cove Rangers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

2.79

1.46

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.86

Cove Rangers

2.79

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.46

Cove Rangers

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

56%

Annan Athletic or Cove Rangers

79%

Draw or Cove Rangers

65%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

18%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

85%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

56%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

29%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

88%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

63%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

45%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.46 · 93 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.86 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cove Rangers attack 2.79 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

35%

level

21%

Cove Rangers scores more

44%

Cove Rangers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Masson↳ D. Glass

14'

J. Redman← D. Higgins

27'

N. Flanagan↳ S. McLean

29'

B. Watson↳ T. Muir

33'

T. MuirPenalty

38'

38'

55'

56'

56'

T. MuirPenalty

58'

T. Muir

64'

Jordon Brown← H. Milne

76'

78'

80'

82'

86'

88'

88'

R. Currie← N. Flanagan

88'

T. Muir↳ S. Swinglehurst

Annan

Cove

1

McKenzie

5

Ross

12

▼

Higgins

3

▼

Milne

11

⚽

20

8

4

14

A

10

19

1

6

A

2

4

3

8

▼

Wilkie

11

⚽

▼

Flanagan

7

A

McLean

5

⚽

Joseph

9

⚽3A

Muir

10

⚽

▼

Watson

82'▲L. McLear←▼B. Watson

86'▲J. Holt←▼K. Wilkie

88'▲R. Currie←▼N. Flanagan

Annan Athletic substitutes

18McLear17Holt15Currie20Nadé12Avci14Sonkur16Barr

Manager: P. Hartley

14'▲J. Redman←▼D. Higgins

64'▲Jordon Brown←▼H. Milne

Cove Rangers substitutes

17Redman18Brown21McCafferty

League Two: Annan Athletic 6–1 Cove Rangers

Annan Athletic beat Cove Rangers 6-1 in League Two on November 30, 2019.

Goals: J. Masson (8'), N. Flanagan (27'), B. Watson (29'), T. Muir (33' pen, 56' pen, 88'), N. Joseph (78').

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.

Annan Athletic vs Cove Rangers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Annan Athletic 6–1 Cove Rangers