Annan Athletic 4–0 Buckie Thistle: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buckie Thistle

M. Gaffney 61'

C. Maxwell 57'

T. Muir 48', 6'

11/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Annan Athletic47%

×Draw22%

Buckie Thistle31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.48

Annan Athletic

1.88

Buckie Thistle

1.48

Annan Athletic creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.33

creates per match

1.64

1.33

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Annan Athletic

2.33

Buckie Thistle

1.64

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.33

Buckie Thistle

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

69%

Annan Athletic or Buckie Thistle

78%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

53%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

26%

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

85%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

56%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

29%

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

77%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

43%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

61%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 2.33 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Annan Athletic defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

47%

level

22%

Buckie Thistle scores more

31%

Annan Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

T. Muir

48'

T. Muir↳ C. Maxwell

52'

C. Donaldson← J. Peters

52'

M. Goodall← R. Paterson

55'

M. Gaffney← T. Muir

57'

C. Maxwell

61'

F. Robertson← H. Noble

61'

65'

73'

78'

82'

82'

A. Nicolson← A. Morgan-Cummings

Annan

Buckie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

⚽2

▼

Muir

▼

Craik

Manager: Wullie Gibson

55'▲M. Gaffney←▼T. Muir

73'▲G. Kalala←▼Z. Craik

Annan Athletic substitutes

1Balfour10Gaffney11Kalala15Bell

52'▲C. Donaldson←▼J. Peters

52'▲M. Goodall←▼R. Paterson

61'▲F. Robertson←▼H. Noble

82'▲A. Conway←▼F. Allen

82'▲A. Nicolson←▼A. Morgan-Cummings

Buckie Thistle substitutes

1Storrier5McKay21Wood18Donaldson20Goodall14Morrison6Robertson15Conway8Nicolson