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Annan Athletic vs Brechin — League Two 2018

Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Brechin
Brechin
4/17/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Annan Athletic55%
×Draw22%
Brechin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annan Athletic
2.00
Brechin
1.25

Annan Athletic creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

creates per match

Annan Athletic
1.86
Brechin
1.04

allows per match

Annan Athletic
1.46
Brechin
2.15

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw
76%
Annan Athletic or Brechin
78%
Draw or Brechin
45%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+
32%
Brechin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals
86%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
59%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
32%
Brechin 1+ goals
71%
Brechin 2+ goals
36%
Brechin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
70%
Brechin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.46 · 93 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.86 + Brechin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Brechin attack 1.04 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Annan Athletic scores more
55%
level
22%
Brechin scores more
24%

Annan Athletic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Annan Athletic 3–0 Brechin

Annan Athletic beat Brechin 3-0 in League Two on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.