Annan Athletic 0–4 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Arbroath

12/21/2024

League #183 · Round 18Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Annan Athletic30%

×Draw22%

Arbroath47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.89

Annan Athletic

1.47

Arbroath

1.89

Arbroath creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.78

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.50

Arbroath

1.78

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.00

Arbroath

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Arbroath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

53%

Annan Athletic or Arbroath

78%

Draw or Arbroath

70%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Arbroath wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

43%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

18%

Arbroath 1+ goals

85%

Arbroath 2+ goals

56%

Arbroath 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

39%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.50 + Arbroath defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arbroath attack 1.78 + Annan Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

30%

level

22%

Arbroath scores more

47%

Arbroath at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff