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Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
3/3/2026League #407League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Annagh United53%
×Draw23%
Warrenpoint Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
1.78
Warrenpoint Town
1.10

Annagh United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.89
Warrenpoint Town
1.00

allows per match

Annagh United
1.21
Warrenpoint Town
1.67

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Warrenpoint Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Warrenpoint Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
77%
Annagh United or Warrenpoint Town
77%
Draw or Warrenpoint Town
47%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
30%
Warrenpoint Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
83%
Annagh United 2+ goals
53%
Annagh United 3+ goals
26%
Warrenpoint Town 1+ goals
67%
Warrenpoint Town 2+ goals
30%
Warrenpoint Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
69%
Warrenpoint Town (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Warrenpoint Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.89 + Warrenpoint Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Warrenpoint Town attack 1.00 + Annagh United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Annagh United scores more
53%
level
23%
Warrenpoint Town scores more
23%

Annagh United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town

Annagh United beat Warrenpoint Town 1-0 in League #407 on March 3, 2026.