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Annagh United vs Ards — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ards
Ards
3/7/2026League #407League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Annagh United40%
×Draw23%
Ards37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
1.65
Ards
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.89
Ards
1.93

allows per match

Annagh United
1.21
Ards
1.40

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Ards+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Ards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
63%
Annagh United or Ards
77%
Draw or Ards
60%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
20%
Ards wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
81%
Annagh United 2+ goals
49%
Annagh United 3+ goals
23%
Ards 1+ goals
79%
Ards 2+ goals
46%
Ards 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
52%
Ards (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Ards away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.89 + Ards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ards attack 1.93 + Annagh United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Annagh United scores more
40%
level
23%
Ards scores more
37%

Annagh United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Annagh United 3–2 Ards

Annagh United beat Ards 3-2 in League #407 on March 7, 2026.