Anker Wismar 0–3 Tasmania Berlin: Result & Stats

Anker Wismar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tasmania Berlin

11/2/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 11Kurt-Bürger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Anker Wismar43%

×Draw22%

Tasmania Berlin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anker WismarExpected goals in this matchTasmania Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.64

Anker Wismar

1.84

Tasmania Berlin

1.64

Anker Wismar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

2.04

creates per match

1.70

1.58

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Anker Wismar

2.04

Tasmania Berlin

1.70

allows per match

Anker Wismar

1.58

Tasmania Berlin

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anker Wismar+0.00on par

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anker Wismar ↓

Tasmania Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Anker Wismar or draw

65%

Anker Wismar or Tasmania Berlin

78%

Draw or Tasmania Berlin

57%

Winning margin

Anker Wismar wins by 2+

23%

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Anker Wismar 1+ goals

84%

Anker Wismar 2+ goals

55%

Anker Wismar 3+ goals

28%

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

81%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

49%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Anker Wismar (draw refunded)

55%

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anker Wismar at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anker Wismar attack 2.04 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Anker Wismar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anker Wismar scores more

43%

level

22%

Tasmania Berlin scores more

35%

Anker Wismar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anker Wismar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff