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Anker Wismar vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Anker Wismar
Anker Wismar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Staaken
Staaken
5/18/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Kurt-Bürger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Anker Wismar50%
×Draw22%
Staaken28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anker Wismar
2.03
Staaken
1.48

Anker Wismar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

creates per match

Anker Wismar
2.04
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Anker Wismar
1.58
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Anker Wismar+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anker Wismar ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Anker Wismar or draw
72%
Anker Wismar or Staaken
78%
Draw or Staaken
50%

Winning margin

Anker Wismar wins by 2+
29%
Staaken wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Anker Wismar 1+ goals
87%
Anker Wismar 2+ goals
60%
Anker Wismar 3+ goals
33%
Staaken 1+ goals
77%
Staaken 2+ goals
43%
Staaken 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Anker Wismar (draw refunded)
64%
Staaken (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anker Wismar at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anker Wismar attack 2.04 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.03

Staaken attack 1.38 + Anker Wismar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Anker Wismar scores more
50%
level
22%
Staaken scores more
28%

Anker Wismar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Anker Wismar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anker Wismar vs Staaken

Anker Wismar beat Staaken 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Kurt-Bürger-Stadion in Wismar.