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Anker Wismar vs Hertha Zehlendorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Anker Wismar
Anker Wismar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
7/29/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Kurt-Bürger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Anker Wismar34%
×Draw22%
Hertha Zehlendorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anker Wismar
1.68
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.96

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

creates per match

Anker Wismar
2.04
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.33

allows per match

Anker Wismar
1.58
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.31

finishing

Anker Wismar+0.00on par
Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anker Wismar ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Anker Wismar or draw
55%
Anker Wismar or Hertha Zehlendorf
78%
Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf
66%

Winning margin

Anker Wismar wins by 2+
17%
Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Anker Wismar 1+ goals
81%
Anker Wismar 2+ goals
50%
Anker Wismar 3+ goals
24%
Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
86%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
58%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Anker Wismar (draw refunded)
43%
Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anker Wismar at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anker Wismar attack 2.04 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + Anker Wismar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anker Wismar scores more
34%
level
22%
Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
45%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Anker Wismar 1–2 Hertha Zehlendorf

Hertha Zehlendorf beat Anker Wismar 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Kurt-Bürger-Stadion in Wismar.