Ankaragücü 2–0 Somaspor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Somaspor

10/26/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ankaragücü55%

×Draw23%

Somaspor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchSomaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.11

Ankaragücü

1.86

Somaspor

1.11

Ankaragücü creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.39

creates per match

1.33

0.89

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Somaspor

1.33

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Somaspor

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Somaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Somaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

77%

Ankaragücü or Somaspor

77%

Draw or Somaspor

45%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

31%

Somaspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

84%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

55%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

28%

Somaspor 1+ goals

67%

Somaspor 2+ goals

30%

Somaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

71%

Somaspor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Somaspor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Somaspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Somaspor attack 1.33 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

55%

level

23%

Somaspor scores more

23%

Ankaragücü at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff