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Ankaragücü vs Serik Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Serik Spor
Serik Spor
9/26/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundOsmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ankaragücü77%
×Draw14%
Serik Spor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaragücü
2.70
Serik Spor
0.82

Ankaragücü creates 229% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ankaragücü
2.39
Serik Spor
0.75

allows per match

Ankaragücü
0.89
Serik Spor
3.00

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par
Serik Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Serik Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw
91%
Ankaragücü or Serik Spor
86%
Draw or Serik Spor
23%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+
55%
Serik Spor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals
93%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
75%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
50%
Serik Spor 1+ goals
56%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
20%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
89%
Serik Spor (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Serik Spor away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Serik Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Serik Spor attack 0.75 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Ankaragücü scores more
77%
level
14%
Serik Spor scores more
9%

Ankaragücü at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Serik Spor

Ankaragücü beat Serik Spor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.