Ankaragücü 3–0 Nazilli Spor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nazilli Spor

12/2/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ankaragücü70%

×Draw17%

Nazilli Spor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchNazilli Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.95

Ankaragücü

2.45

Nazilli Spor

0.95

Ankaragücü creates 158% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.39

creates per match

1.00

0.89

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Nazilli Spor

1.00

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Nazilli Spor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Nazilli Spor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

87%

Ankaragücü or Nazilli Spor

83%

Draw or Nazilli Spor

30%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

47%

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

91%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

70%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

44%

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals

61%

Nazilli Spor 2+ goals

25%

Nazilli Spor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

84%

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

70%

level

17%

Nazilli Spor scores more

13%

Ankaragücü at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff