Ankaragücü 1–1 İskenderunspor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

İskenderunspor

1/7/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 1Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ankaragücü66%

×Draw19%

İskenderunspor15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchİskenderunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.95

Ankaragücü

2.20

İskenderunspor

0.95

Ankaragücü creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.39

creates per match

1.00

0.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

İskenderunspor

1.00

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

İskenderunspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

İskenderunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

İskenderunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

85%

Ankaragücü or İskenderunspor

81%

Draw or İskenderunspor

34%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

42%

İskenderunspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

89%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

64%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

37%

İskenderunspor 1+ goals

61%

İskenderunspor 2+ goals

25%

İskenderunspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

81%

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

İskenderunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + İskenderunspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

İskenderunspor attack 1.00 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

66%

level

19%

İskenderunspor scores more

15%

Ankaragücü at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Ankaragücü 1–1 İskenderunspor

Ankaragücü and İskenderunspor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 7, 2025.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.

Ankaragücü vs İskenderunspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: Ankaragücü 1–1 İskenderunspor