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Ankaragücü vs Erbaaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
10/31/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundOsmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ankaragücü62%
×Draw20%
Erbaaspor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaragücü
2.14
Erbaaspor
1.05

Ankaragücü creates 104% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ankaragücü
2.39
Erbaaspor
1.22

allows per match

Ankaragücü
0.89
Erbaaspor
1.89

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par
Erbaaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Erbaaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw
82%
Ankaragücü or Erbaaspor
80%
Draw or Erbaaspor
38%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+
39%
Erbaaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals
88%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
63%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
36%
Erbaaspor 1+ goals
65%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
28%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
78%
Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Erbaaspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Erbaaspor defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.14

Erbaaspor attack 1.22 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ankaragücü scores more
62%
level
20%
Erbaaspor scores more
18%

Ankaragücü at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Erbaaspor

Ankaragücü beat Erbaaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.