Ankaragücü 2–0 Beykoz Anadolu: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beykoz Anadolu

F. Macheda 55'

Jesé 7'

12/20/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAkdeniz Üniversitesi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ankaragücü37%

×Draw23%

Beykoz Anadolu39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchBeykoz Anadolu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.65

Ankaragücü

1.60

Beykoz Anadolu

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.39

creates per match

2.40

0.89

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Beykoz Anadolu

2.40

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Beykoz Anadolu

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

61%

Ankaragücü or Beykoz Anadolu

77%

Draw or Beykoz Anadolu

63%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

18%

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

80%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

47%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

22%

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

81%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

49%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

49%

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Beykoz Anadolu attack 2.40 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

37%

level

23%

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

39%

Beykoz Anadolu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Jesé↳ O. Ceylan

17'

42'

43'

55'

59'

63'

A. Yahaya← J. Adeniyi

64'

K. Korkmaz← S. Karaduman

69'

F. Üzüm← O. Ceylan

76'

A. Seven← A. Cissé

79'

Ş. Çetin← Pêpê Rodrigues

80'

A. Babacan← A. Çankaya

80'

G. Ariyibi← Jesé

Statistics

AnkaragücüBeykoz

Overview

3Corners6

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3