Ankara Demirspor 1–1 Yomraspor: Result & Stats

Ankara Demirspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yomraspor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundTCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankara Demirspor44%

×Draw26%

Yomraspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ankara DemirsporExpected goals in this matchYomraspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Ankara Demirspor

1.44

Yomraspor

1.13

Ankara Demirspor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ankara Demirspor

1.50

Yomraspor

1.00

allows per match

Ankara Demirspor

1.25

Yomraspor

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par

Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankara Demirspor ↓

Yomraspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ankara Demirspor or draw

70%

Ankara Demirspor or Yomraspor

74%

Draw or Yomraspor

56%

Winning margin

Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+

21%

Yomraspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals

76%

Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals

42%

Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals

18%

Yomraspor 1+ goals

68%

Yomraspor 2+ goals

31%

Yomraspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)

60%

Yomraspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankara Demirspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.50 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Ankara Demirspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ankara Demirspor scores more

44%

level

26%

Yomraspor scores more

30%

Ankara Demirspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ankara Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff