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Ankara Demirspor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankara Demirspor
Ankara Demirspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
10/30/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundTCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankara Demirspor60%
×Draw20%
Talasgücü Belediyespor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankara Demirspor
2.25
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.25

Ankara Demirspor creates 80% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.50
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.25

allows per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.25
Talasgücü Belediyespor
3.00

finishing

Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par
Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankara Demirspor ↓

Talasgücü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ankara Demirspor or draw
80%
Ankara Demirspor or Talasgücü Belediyespor
80%
Draw or Talasgücü Belediyespor
40%

Winning margin

Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+
37%
Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals
89%
Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals
65%
Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals
39%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
71%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
36%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)
74%
Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankara Demirspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.50 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 1.25 + Ankara Demirspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ankara Demirspor scores more
60%
level
20%
Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
20%

Ankara Demirspor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ankara Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankara Demirspor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor

Ankara Demirspor beat Talasgücü Belediyespor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at TCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı in Ankara.