Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ankara Demirspor vs Kastamonuspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankara Demirspor
Ankara Demirspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Kastamonuspor
Kastamonuspor
12/5/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundTCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankara Demirspor60%
×Draw20%
Kastamonuspor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankara Demirspor
2.15
Kastamonuspor
1.13

Ankara Demirspor creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.50
Kastamonuspor
1.00

allows per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.25
Kastamonuspor
2.80

finishing

Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par
Kastamonuspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankara Demirspor ↓

Kastamonuspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ankara Demirspor or draw
81%
Ankara Demirspor or Kastamonuspor
80%
Draw or Kastamonuspor
40%

Winning margin

Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+
37%
Kastamonuspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals
88%
Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals
63%
Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals
36%
Kastamonuspor 1+ goals
68%
Kastamonuspor 2+ goals
31%
Kastamonuspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)
76%
Kastamonuspor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankara Demirspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Kastamonuspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.50 + Kastamonuspor defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Kastamonuspor attack 1.00 + Ankara Demirspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ankara Demirspor scores more
60%
level
20%
Kastamonuspor scores more
19%

Ankara Demirspor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ankara Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankara Demirspor vs Kastamonuspor

Kastamonuspor beat Ankara Demirspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at TCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı in Ankara.