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Ankara Demirspor vs Karaman FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankara Demirspor
Ankara Demirspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karaman FK
Karaman FK
9/28/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundTCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankara Demirspor48%
×Draw26%
Karaman FK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankara Demirspor
1.46
Karaman FK
0.98

Ankara Demirspor creates 49% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.50
Karaman FK
0.71

allows per match

Ankara Demirspor
1.25
Karaman FK
1.43

finishing

Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par
Karaman FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankara Demirspor ↓

Karaman FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ankara Demirspor or draw
75%
Ankara Demirspor or Karaman FK
74%
Draw or Karaman FK
52%

Winning margin

Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+
24%
Karaman FK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals
77%
Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals
43%
Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals
18%
Karaman FK 1+ goals
62%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
26%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)
66%
Karaman FK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankara Demirspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Karaman FK away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.50 + Karaman FK defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Karaman FK attack 0.71 + Ankara Demirspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ankara Demirspor scores more
48%
level
26%
Karaman FK scores more
25%

Ankara Demirspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ankara Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankara Demirspor vs Karaman FK

Karaman FK beat Ankara Demirspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at TCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı in Ankara.