Ankara Demirspor 1–1 Güzide Gebzespor

Ankara Demirspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Güzide Gebzespor

A. Çördek 66'

T. Güner 48'

10/13/2024

League #205 · Kirmizi - 7TCDD Ankara Demirspor Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankara Demirspor37%

×Draw25%

Güzide Gebzespor38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ankara DemirsporExpected goals in this matchGüzide Gebzespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.43

Ankara Demirspor

1.40

Güzide Gebzespor

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

1.50

creates per match

1.11

1.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ankara Demirspor

1.50

Güzide Gebzespor

1.11

allows per match

Ankara Demirspor

1.75

Güzide Gebzespor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankara Demirspor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ankara Demirspor or draw

62%

Ankara Demirspor or Güzide Gebzespor

75%

Draw or Güzide Gebzespor

63%

Winning margin

Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+

17%

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals

75%

Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals

41%

Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals

17%

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals

76%

Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals

42%

Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)

49%

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankara Demirspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.50 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + Ankara Demirspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ankara Demirspor scores more

37%

level

25%

Güzide Gebzespor scores more

38%

Güzide Gebzespor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

T. Güner

54'

İ. Nalbant← D. Özdemir

60'

B. Kumlu← A. Dama

60'

A. Çördek← T. Artuç

60'

H. Afkan← B. Altıntaş

66'

80'

80'

80'

80'

87'

M. Yıldırım← F. Işıkdemir

Ankara

Güzide

41

12

48

88

23

4

89

8

⚽

▼

Güner

11

▼

Özdemir

6

▼

Karakaya

21

▼

1

77

23

3

▼

Küçük

24

Aslanboğa

5

▼

Işıkdemir

66

Tutcuoğlu

61

▼

Zeren

79

▼

Dama

47

▼

Artuç

9

Kaya

Manager: A. Kaldırım

60'▲B. Kumlu←▼A. Dama

60'▲A. Çördek←▼T. Artuç

80'▲O. Deniz←▼E. Küçük

80'▲S. Olgaç←▼B. Zeren

87'▲M. Yıldırım←▼F. Işıkdemir

Ankara Demirspor substitutes

98Kumlu19Çördek17Deniz6Olgaç10Yıldırım16Adıyaman4Karadeniz14Yeşil8Yılmaz11Nergiz

Manager: N. Çolak

54'▲İ. Nalbant←▼D. Özdemir

60'▲H. Afkan←▼B. Altıntaş

80'▲Ü. Ekşi←▼Y. Karakaya

80'▲B. Samancı←▼T. Güner

Güzide Gebzespor substitutes

9Nalbant10Afkan20Ekşi77Samancı13Güler7Yaman47Harman25Balcı17Yıldız18İrze