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Anif vs Golling — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Anif
Anif
FT
3 – 1
Golling
Golling
9/23/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 9Sportzentrum Anif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Anif47%
×Draw22%
Golling31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anif
1.94
Golling
1.56

Anif creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 56 away

creates per match

Anif
1.55
Golling
1.50

allows per match

Anif
1.61
Golling
2.32

finishing

Anif+0.00on par
Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anif ↓

Golling →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Anif or draw
69%
Anif or Golling
78%
Draw or Golling
53%

Winning margin

Anif wins by 2+
26%
Golling wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anif 1+ goals
86%
Anif 2+ goals
58%
Anif 3+ goals
30%
Golling 1+ goals
79%
Golling 2+ goals
46%
Golling 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Anif (draw refunded)
60%
Golling (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anif at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anif attack 1.55 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.94

Golling attack 1.50 + Anif defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Anif scores more
47%
level
22%
Golling scores more
31%

Anif at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Anif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anif 3 – 1 Golling

Anif beat Golling 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Anif in Anif.