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Anif vs Bürmoos — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Anif
Anif
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bürmoos
Bürmoos
4/4/2026Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 19Sportzentrum Anif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Anif37%
×Draw23%
Bürmoos40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anif
1.60
Bürmoos
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 84 away

creates per match

Anif
1.55
Bürmoos
1.76

allows per match

Anif
1.61
Bürmoos
1.65

finishing

Anif+0.00on par
Bürmoos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anif ↓

Bürmoos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Anif or draw
60%
Anif or Bürmoos
77%
Draw or Bürmoos
63%

Winning margin

Anif wins by 2+
18%
Bürmoos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Anif 1+ goals
80%
Anif 2+ goals
47%
Anif 3+ goals
22%
Bürmoos 1+ goals
82%
Bürmoos 2+ goals
50%
Bürmoos 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Anif (draw refunded)
48%
Bürmoos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anif at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

Bürmoos away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anif attack 1.55 + Bürmoos defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bürmoos attack 1.76 + Anif defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anif scores more
37%
level
23%
Bürmoos scores more
40%

Bürmoos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bürmoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Anif 2–1 Bürmoos

Anif beat Bürmoos 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Anif in Anif.