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Ani Yerevan vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
FT
5 – 4
Shirak II
Shirak II
3/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan27%
×Draw19%
Shirak II54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ani Yerevan
1.72
Shirak II
2.48

Shirak II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ani Yerevan
1.00
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Ani Yerevan
3.79
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw
46%
Ani Yerevan or Shirak II
81%
Draw or Shirak II
73%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
13%
Shirak II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
82%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
51%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
25%
Shirak II 1+ goals
92%
Shirak II 2+ goals
70%
Shirak II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
33%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more
27%
level
19%
Shirak II scores more
54%

Shirak II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ani Yerevan vs Shirak II

Ani Yerevan beat Shirak II 5-4 in First League on March 4, 2020.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.