Ani Yerevan 0–3 Pyunik II: Result & Stats

Ani Yerevan

FT

0 – 3

Pyunik II

8/21/2019

First League · Round 4Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan22%

×Draw18%

Pyunik II59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ani YerevanExpected goals in this matchPyunik II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.63

Ani Yerevan

1.58

Pyunik II

2.63

Pyunik II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 98 away

1.00

creates per match

1.46

3.79

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Ani Yerevan

1.00

Pyunik II

1.46

allows per match

Ani Yerevan

3.79

Pyunik II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Pyunik II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw

41%

Ani Yerevan or Pyunik II

82%

Draw or Pyunik II

78%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

10%

Pyunik II wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

79%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

47%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

21%

Pyunik II 1+ goals

93%

Pyunik II 2+ goals

73%

Pyunik II 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

27%

Pyunik II (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more

22%

level

18%

Pyunik II scores more

59%

Pyunik II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pyunik II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff