Ani Yerevan 0–5 Alashkert II: Result & Stats

Ani Yerevan

FT

0 – 5

Alashkert II

11/5/2019

First League · Round 14Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan27%

×Draw19%

Alashkert II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ani YerevanExpected goals in this matchAlashkert II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.59

Ani Yerevan

1.79

Alashkert II

2.59

Alashkert II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

1.00

creates per match

1.39

3.79

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Ani Yerevan

1.00

Alashkert II

1.39

allows per match

Ani Yerevan

3.79

Alashkert II

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Alashkert II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw

45%

Ani Yerevan or Alashkert II

81%

Draw or Alashkert II

73%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

13%

Alashkert II wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

83%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

53%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

26%

Alashkert II 1+ goals

92%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

73%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

33%

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more

27%

level

19%

Alashkert II scores more

55%

Alashkert II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff