Angust Nazran 0–1 Kuban Kholding: Result & Stats

Angust Nazran

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kuban Kholding

8/30/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angust Nazran28%

×Draw31%

Kuban Kholding41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angust NazranExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.12

Angust Nazran

0.88

Kuban Kholding

1.12

Kuban Kholding creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 91 away

0.79

creates per match

1.35

0.89

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Angust Nazran

0.79

Kuban Kholding

1.35

allows per match

Angust Nazran

0.89

Kuban Kholding

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw

59%

Angust Nazran or Kuban Kholding

69%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

72%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+

10%

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals

59%

Angust Nazran 2+ goals

22%

Angust Nazran 3+ goals

6%

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

67%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

31%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)

41%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angust Nazran scores more

28%

level

31%

Kuban Kholding scores more

41%

Kuban Kholding at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff