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Angust Nazran vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Biolog
Biolog
9/14/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angust Nazran38%
×Draw28%
Biolog33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angust Nazran
1.19
Biolog
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

creates per match

Angust Nazran
0.79
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Angust Nazran
0.89
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw
67%
Angust Nazran or Biolog
72%
Draw or Biolog
62%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+
16%
Biolog wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals
70%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
33%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
12%
Biolog 1+ goals
66%
Biolog 2+ goals
30%
Biolog 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
53%
Biolog (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Biolog attack 1.30 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Angust Nazran scores more
38%
level
28%
Biolog scores more
33%

Angust Nazran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Angust Nazran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Angust Nazran 0–0 Biolog

Angust Nazran and Biolog drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva in Nazran'.