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Anguiano vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Anguiano74%
×Draw16%
Villegas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
2.52
Villegas
0.80

Anguiano creates 215% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
90%
Anguiano or Villegas
84%
Draw or Villegas
26%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
52%
Villegas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
92%
Anguiano 2+ goals
71%
Anguiano 3+ goals
45%
Villegas 1+ goals
55%
Villegas 2+ goals
19%
Villegas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
88%
Villegas (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.52

Villegas attack 0.57 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Anguiano scores more
74%
level
16%
Villegas scores more
10%

Anguiano at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anguiano vs Villegas

Anguiano beat Villegas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.