Anguiano 4–4 Racing Rioja: Result & Stats

Anguiano

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Racing Rioja

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Anguiano48%

×Draw24%

Racing Rioja28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnguianoExpected goals in this matchRacing Rioja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Anguiano

1.71

Racing Rioja

1.25

Anguiano creates 37% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

1.47

1.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Anguiano

2.00

Racing Rioja

1.47

allows per match

Anguiano

1.03

Racing Rioja

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Racing Rioja →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw

72%

Anguiano or Racing Rioja

76%

Draw or Racing Rioja

52%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+

26%

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals

82%

Anguiano 2+ goals

51%

Anguiano 3+ goals

24%

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

71%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

36%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)

63%

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Anguiano scores more

48%

level

24%

Racing Rioja scores more

28%

Anguiano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff