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Anguiano vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Anguiano60%
×Draw22%
Peña Balsamaiso19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.96
Peña Balsamaiso
1.00

Anguiano creates 96% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
81%
Anguiano or Peña Balsamaiso
78%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
40%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
36%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
86%
Anguiano 2+ goals
58%
Anguiano 3+ goals
31%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
63%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
26%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
76%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Anguiano scores more
60%
level
22%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
19%

Anguiano at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anguiano 4 – 0 Peña Balsamaiso

Anguiano beat Peña Balsamaiso 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.