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Anguiano vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Calzada
La Calzada
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Anguiano52%
×Draw24%
La Calzada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.73
La Calzada
1.11

Anguiano creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
76%
Anguiano or La Calzada
76%
Draw or La Calzada
48%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
28%
La Calzada wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
82%
Anguiano 2+ goals
52%
Anguiano 3+ goals
25%
La Calzada 1+ goals
67%
La Calzada 2+ goals
30%
La Calzada 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
68%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Anguiano scores more
52%
level
24%
La Calzada scores more
24%

Anguiano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anguiano 1 – 1 La Calzada

Anguiano and La Calzada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.