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Anguiano vs Calasancio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Calasancio
Calasancio
2/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Anguiano67%
×Draw19%
Calasancio13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
2.16
Calasancio
0.84

Anguiano creates 157% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 29 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Calasancio
0.66

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Calasancio
2.31

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Calasancio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Calasancio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
87%
Anguiano or Calasancio
81%
Draw or Calasancio
33%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
43%
Calasancio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
88%
Anguiano 2+ goals
63%
Anguiano 3+ goals
36%
Calasancio 1+ goals
57%
Calasancio 2+ goals
21%
Calasancio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
83%
Calasancio (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Calasancio away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Calasancio defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

Calasancio attack 0.66 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Anguiano scores more
67%
level
19%
Calasancio scores more
13%

Anguiano at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anguiano vs Calasancio

Calasancio beat Anguiano 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.