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Anguiano vs Calahorra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calahorra
Calahorra
9/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Anguiano37%
×Draw24%
Calahorra40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.53
Calahorra
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 18 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Calahorra
2.17

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Calahorra
1.06

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
60%
Anguiano or Calahorra
76%
Draw or Calahorra
63%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
18%
Calahorra wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
78%
Anguiano 2+ goals
45%
Anguiano 3+ goals
20%
Calahorra 1+ goals
80%
Calahorra 2+ goals
47%
Calahorra 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
48%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Calahorra away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Calahorra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Calahorra attack 2.17 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anguiano scores more
37%
level
24%
Calahorra scores more
40%

Calahorra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Anguiano 1–1 Calahorra

Anguiano and Calahorra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.