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Anguiano vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arnedo
Arnedo
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Anguiano44%
×Draw24%
Arnedo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.60
Arnedo
1.33

Anguiano creates 20% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 95 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
68%
Anguiano or Arnedo
76%
Draw or Arnedo
56%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
22%
Arnedo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
80%
Anguiano 2+ goals
47%
Anguiano 3+ goals
22%
Arnedo 1+ goals
74%
Arnedo 2+ goals
38%
Arnedo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
58%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anguiano scores more
44%
level
24%
Arnedo scores more
32%

Anguiano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anguiano vs Arnedo

Anguiano beat Arnedo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.