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Anguiano vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Alfaro
Alfaro
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 19Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Anguiano41%
×Draw24%
Alfaro35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.57
Alfaro
1.42

Anguiano creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
65%
Anguiano or Alfaro
76%
Draw or Alfaro
59%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
20%
Alfaro wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
79%
Anguiano 2+ goals
46%
Anguiano 3+ goals
21%
Alfaro 1+ goals
76%
Alfaro 2+ goals
41%
Alfaro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
54%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Anguiano scores more
41%
level
24%
Alfaro scores more
35%

Anguiano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anguiano vs Alfaro

Anguiano and Alfaro drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.