Angri Calcio 0–2 Nola 1925: Result & Stats

Angri Calcio

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nola 1925

10/2/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Pasquale Novi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio37%

×Draw25%

Nola 192538%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angri CalcioExpected goals in this matchNola 1925

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.42

Angri Calcio

1.39

Nola 1925

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.94

creates per match

1.44

1.41

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Angri Calcio

0.94

Nola 1925

1.44

allows per match

Angri Calcio

1.41

Nola 1925

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

Nola 1925 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw

62%

Angri Calcio or Nola 1925

75%

Draw or Nola 1925

63%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

17%

Nola 1925 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

75%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

40%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

16%

Nola 1925 1+ goals

76%

Nola 1925 2+ goals

41%

Nola 1925 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

49%

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Angri Calcio scores more

37%

level

25%

Nola 1925 scores more

38%

Nola 1925 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nola 1925 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff