Angri Calcio 1–1 Lupa Roma: Result & Stats

Angri Calcio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lupa Roma

10/30/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Pasquale Novi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio30%

×Draw30%

Lupa Roma39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angri CalcioExpected goals in this matchLupa Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.11

Angri Calcio

0.94

Lupa Roma

1.11

Lupa Roma creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.94

creates per match

0.82

1.41

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Angri Calcio

0.94

Lupa Roma

0.82

allows per match

Angri Calcio

1.41

Lupa Roma

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

Lupa Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw

61%

Angri Calcio or Lupa Roma

70%

Draw or Lupa Roma

70%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

11%

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

61%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

24%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

7%

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

67%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

30%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

44%

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angri Calcio scores more

30%

level

30%

Lupa Roma scores more

39%

Lupa Roma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff