Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Angoulême vs Bordeaux — Coupe de France 2018

Angoulême
Angoulême
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bordeaux
Bordeaux
12/9/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Lebon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Angoulême35%
×Draw24%
Bordeaux41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angoulême
1.43
Bordeaux
1.58

Bordeaux creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Angoulême
1.75
Bordeaux
1.67

allows per match

Angoulême
1.50
Bordeaux
1.11

finishing

Angoulême+0.00on par
Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angoulême ↓

Bordeaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Angoulême or draw
59%
Angoulême or Bordeaux
76%
Draw or Bordeaux
65%

Winning margin

Angoulême wins by 2+
16%
Bordeaux wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Angoulême 1+ goals
76%
Angoulême 2+ goals
42%
Angoulême 3+ goals
17%
Bordeaux 1+ goals
79%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
47%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Angoulême (draw refunded)
46%
Bordeaux (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angoulême at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angoulême attack 1.75 + Bordeaux defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bordeaux attack 1.67 + Angoulême defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angoulême scores more
35%
level
24%
Bordeaux scores more
41%

Bordeaux at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Angoulême 0–1 Bordeaux

Bordeaux beat Angoulême 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Lebon in Angoulême.