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Angostura FC vs Minervén — Segunda División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
7 – 0
Minervén
Minervén
7/17/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Angostura FC76%
×Draw15%
Minervén9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
2.64
Minervén
0.79

Angostura FC creates 234% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 9 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.50
Minervén
0.67

allows per match

Angostura FC
0.91
Minervén
3.78

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Minervén+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Minervén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
91%
Angostura FC or Minervén
85%
Draw or Minervén
24%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
55%
Minervén wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
93%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
74%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
48%
Minervén 1+ goals
55%
Minervén 2+ goals
19%
Minervén 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
90%
Minervén (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 74 matches

Minervén away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.50 + Minervén defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.64

Minervén attack 0.67 + Angostura FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Angostura FC scores more
76%
level
15%
Minervén scores more
9%

Angostura FC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Angostura FC 7–0 Minervén

Angostura FC beat Minervén 7-0 in Segunda División on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.