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Angostura FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
0 – 1
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
11/10/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Angostura FC47%
×Draw27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.40
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.96

Angostura FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 77 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.50
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Angostura FC
0.91
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
74%
Angostura FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
73%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
53%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
23%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
75%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
41%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
17%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
62%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
25%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
65%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 74 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.50 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Angostura FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Angostura FC scores more
47%
level
27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
26%

Angostura FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angostura FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Segunda División on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.