Angola 3–0 Namibia: Result & Stats

Angola

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Namibia

1/27/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Angola68%

×Draw22%

Namibia10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngolaExpected goals in this matchNamibia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.50

Angola

1.75

Namibia

0.50

Angola creates 250% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.63

creates per match

0.50

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Angola

1.63

Namibia

0.50

allows per match

Angola

0.50

Namibia

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angola+0.00on par

Namibia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angola ↓

Namibia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Angola or draw

90%

Angola or Namibia

78%

Draw or Namibia

32%

Winning margin

Angola wins by 2+

40%

Namibia wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Angola 1+ goals

83%

Angola 2+ goals

52%

Angola 3+ goals

25%

Namibia 1+ goals

39%

Namibia 2+ goals

9%

Namibia 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Angola (draw refunded)

87%

Namibia (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Namibia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angola attack 1.63 + Namibia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Namibia attack 0.50 + Angola defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Angola scores more

68%

level

22%

Namibia scores more

10%

Angola at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff