Angola 1–1 Mauritania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Angola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mauritania

M. Keliano 86'

I. Thiam 90'

6/5/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalStade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Angola59%

×Draw25%

Mauritania16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngolaExpected goals in this matchMauritania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.67

Angola

1.55

Mauritania

0.67

Angola creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

0.83

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Angola

1.67

Mauritania

0.50

allows per match

Angola

0.83

Mauritania

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angola+0.00on par

Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angola ↓

Mauritania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Angola or draw

84%

Angola or Mauritania

75%

Draw or Mauritania

41%

Winning margin

Angola wins by 2+

31%

Mauritania wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Angola 1+ goals

79%

Angola 2+ goals

46%

Angola 3+ goals

20%

Mauritania 1+ goals

49%

Mauritania 2+ goals

15%

Mauritania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Angola (draw refunded)

79%

Mauritania (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angola at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angola attack 1.67 + Mauritania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mauritania attack 0.50 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Angola scores more

59%

level

25%

Mauritania scores more

16%

Angola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'

M. Keliano

90'

I. Thiam

Angola

Mauritania

16

21

5

3

20

11

8

17

29

12

23

1

21

13

3

6

23

8

20

⚽

24

9

27

Manager: Aliou Cisse

Manager: Aritz Lopez

Mauritania substitutes

DiopBaSaleckAbdImigeneDeuffFofanaFofanaSidiThiamDiallo