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Angola vs Egypt — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Angola
Angola
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Egypt
Egypt
12/29/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Angola46%
×Draw31%
Egypt22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angola
1.15
Egypt
0.70

Angola creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Angola
1.63
Egypt
0.89

allows per match

Angola
0.50
Egypt
0.67

finishing

Angola+0.00on par
Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angola ↓

Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Angola or draw
78%
Angola or Egypt
69%
Draw or Egypt
54%

Winning margin

Angola wins by 2+
20%
Egypt wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Angola 1+ goals
68%
Angola 2+ goals
32%
Angola 3+ goals
11%
Egypt 1+ goals
50%
Egypt 2+ goals
16%
Egypt 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Angola (draw refunded)
67%
Egypt (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Egypt away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angola attack 1.63 + Egypt defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Egypt attack 0.89 + Angola defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Angola scores more
46%
level
31%
Egypt scores more
22%

Angola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
H. MarquesAngolaAngola · G
7.9

Match Events

25'
Ibrahim Adel
27'
Chico Banza
46'
Y. Ibrahim← M. Ismail
46'
M. Fathi← Mostafa Mohamed
46'
Zizo← M. Saber
64'
M. Benson← Z. Luvumbo
64'
Show← Beni
64'
Gelson Dala← C. Banza
64'
M. Shehata← M. Lasheen
70'
Yasser Ibrahim
79'
M. Nzola← Maestro
86'
Papel Ary← Mabululu
86'
H. Fathy← S. Mohsen

Possession

44%Angola

Shots

16Angola

Pass accuracy

50%Angola

Statistics

AngolaEgypt
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots5
4Corners2
15Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots5
4On Target2
10Off Target3
2Blocked0
7Inside Box3
9Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
321Total Passes427
244Accurate Passes324
76%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Angola vs Egypt

Angola and Egypt drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 29, 2025.

Egypt controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.